Bracket Deep Dive - Are We Getting a 16-Seed Upset?
short answer: likely not.
Good morning everyone.
With the bracket established and tournament play underway, it’s time to speculate. I will have a separate post coming out prior to Thursday regarding the tournament as a whole, where I will discuss my picks and how I filled out my bracket. For now, I’d like to present a fun and interesting case study revolving around the 16v1 matchups.
Only in recent years have we seen the most improbable upset become a reality, with UMBC taking down Virginia in 2019 and FDU knocking off the Boilermakers last March. Now that we all know that it is in-fact a possibility for a 16 seed to defeat a #1 team, let’s dig into the numbers behind these two situations.
I pulled seven different metrics from College Basketball reference that, in my opinion, were relevant in deciding the outcome of the games they played against the 1-seeds. Those metrics include: Pre-Conference Tournament record, Conference Record, Season PPG, FG%, 3PT FG%, RPG, and AST:TO. I took the minimum of each of those to establish a benchmark that the 16-seeds in this year’s bracket will need to meet to be considered as a POTENTIAL upset. As you can see:
Both teams shot relatively well from three, with UMBC being the stronger team in that facet.
They were overall a solid team for the entire year, with no less than a 62.5% conference win rate. Double digit losses (overall not conf.) are perfectly okay, as that is why they were seeded last.
Assists exceeded turnovers in both instances, with the ratios being adequate or even slightly above average compared to the rest of Division 1.
Now that we have that information at hand, let’s look at the 16 seeds in this tournament:
When you look at the metrics, the only 16 seed that passes all five (metrics that fail to meet the ‘historical’ minimum are shaded red) is Stetson. This really isn’t a surprise to me, as I thought the Hatters could have passed as a 15 seed, but it confirms my initial thoughts regarding this team’s potential.
If you were to ask me if I thought any 16 seed would defeat a top seed this year, the answer would be “No”. It has only happened twice, and although both times are recent, it is still extremely unlikely. With that being said, if I had to pick one 16 seed to upset a #1 team, it would be Stetson. Not only do they pass my test, but they have Jalen Blackmon. High-performance guard-play is something that is almost necessary for a team to succeed in March, and the junior from Indy is someone who can provide that. Blackmon had 43 points against Austin Peay in the ASUN final, shooting efficiently from three and the charity stripe. In addition, his 17 FTA proves that he knows how to take the ball to the basket and cause foul trouble for the opposing team. I’m not saying Stetson will beat UConn by any means, but I will say that you shouldn’t be surprised if the Hatters keep it relatively close for a chunk of the game.
While this is all mainly just a fun deep-dive that I wanted to pursue out of self-interest and likely completely meaningless, I still think it is interesting to see what goes into these history-forming matchups. I love everything about this UConn team and ultimately think Stetson’s defense won’t be able to contain the firepower Dan Hurley wields, but if we see the ASUN champion get the job done, you can say you heard it here first.
That’s all from me tonight. I’m still trying to figure out how to go-about posting my bracket predictions, whether that be uploading a video or just writing an article as I usually do, but make sure to keep an eye out for my thoughts before the real deal starts on Thursday. I’m lucky enough to be living in a city where games are being played, so I am going to be at the Marquette vs. WKU game as well as the Florida vs. Boise State/Colorado game. It should be a time, maybe we get lucky and see an upset first-hand. Either way, I’ll be sure to let you guys know how it goes.
Have a great day everyone, thanks for reading.
Take care,
Ben from CBB Bulletin